98 days until Election Day

Debra Cleaver

Debra Cleaver

— 2 min read
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98 days until Election Day

98 days until Election Day.

This update, like all of my updates, runs long, so I’m going to start with my point right off the bat. I want to fund college media on competitive campuses before the fall semester starts.

Here’s the fast version of why.

In 2024, campaigns and outside groups spent roughly $5.1 billion on broadcast TV. The average person under 50 didn’t watch a single minute of it.

Political money keeps pouring into a channel that young voters just don’t see: 63% of adults under 35 run ad blockers, and 60% consume no broadcast TV at all.

We are spending billions to talk to a wall. But now to the wonky part, because I can’t help myself. Here’s the most recent meta-analysis of what actually moves turnout in a midterm:

  • Social pressure mail: 1.38 points
  • Voter registration mail: 0.8 points
  • Warm SMS texts: 0.68 points
  • In-person canvassing: 0.61 points
  • Handwritten postcards: 0.5 points
  • Volunteer phone calls: 0.23 points
  • Cold SMS texts: 0.22 points
  • Robocalls: 0.00 points

College media produces a 2 to 8 point boost, depending on how long and how hard we run it. In 2018, a one-week campaign with full-page ads in 580 campus papers lifted turnout 2 points. In 2019, an 8-week program produced an 8-point boost.

These aren’t just measurable results; they’re meaningful boosts that can alter election outcomes. Two reasons it works this well:

  • First, students trust college-owned media because they know the school administration approves the ads before they run.
  • Second, the campaign is hyper-targeted. If we run a program at Michigan State University, for example, then we know we are reaching Michigan State students, faculty, and administrators. Compare this to broadcast TV ads, where a significant percentage of viewers are outside the campaign boundaries.

College media is also inexpensive. For $10 per student, we can run a comprehensive, multi-channel, multi-week campaign that produces measurable results. That’s less than the cost of a sandwich.

Thank you for being someone I can make the wonky case to.

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