CEO Update: The math lesson nobody asked for (but should)

ICYMI: We hosted a donor briefing last week. I talked for too long, as usual, but there was one part that I keep coming back to, and I want to share it with you.

It’s a math lesson. I gave it at the briefing, and my friend, who has a PhD in applied mathematics, helped me build the models at 3am — because that’s apparently what we do for fun. You can watch it here:



Here’s the short version: 86.4% of Americans are already registered to vote. That number comes directly from the federal government, and it’s much higher than most people think.

We pulled voter registration and turnout data going back to 1964 and found that after the National Voter Registration Act passed in 1993, registration rates spiked, but turnout rates did not.

Then we modeled what it would actually take to reach 50% turnout this year purely through new registrations. The answer: you’d need to register 107% of all eligible citizens.

To reach the same goal by mobilizing registered voters, you need about 6% of midterm non-voters to show up. That’s a much more solvable problem, and it’s the one we’re working on.

I know people get uncomfortable when I say voter registration isn’t the silver bullet. I’m not saying it doesn’t matter. But we’ve gotten really good at it over the past 30 years, and it’s time to focus on the gap that’s actually holding us back.

The full deck from last week’s briefing is here if you want all the charts. And I’d genuinely love to hear what you think. Hit reply, and we’ll get back to you ASAP. We always want to hear from you.